As world leaders prepare for the 30th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 30) meeting in Belém, Brazil, new research from the National Center for Energy Analytics finds that, after three decades of international pledges and trillions of dollars, there is little sign of the promised energy transition away from fossil fuels.
The paper, "What Energy Transition? A Kaya Analysis of Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions," examines more than thirty years of global energy and emissions data through the lens of the Kaya Identity to measure the impact of decarbonization efforts on changes in global emissions.
The report, which relies on International Energy Agency data, shows that from 1990 to 2024 global economic and population growth were the main drivers of increasing carbon dioxide emissions, far outpacing efficiency gains and economic shifts towards less energy intensive industries.
The impact of decarbonization energy supplies on emissions, however, barely registered. It was found that for every ton of CO2 that was reduced by transitioning to lower-carbon energy, 12.4 tons were reduced by lowering the economy's energy intensity. Indeed, the amount of carbon emitted per unit of energy consumed was just 3% lower in 2024 than in 1990. These data establish that there has been no discernible global energy transition to date. The report also notes how carbon leakage is affecting European economies, raising fears of "deindustrialization."
"The so-called energy transition is a mirage, not a measurable trend, and it is likely to remain so for some time," said Stephen D. Eule, a visiting fellow at NCEA and the issue brief's lead author. "Large increases in the use of renewable and battery technologies have proceeded alongside even larger increases in the use of hydrocarbons to supply an energy hungry world."
The analysis also suggests the futility of pursuing net-zero emissions by 2050. As COP 30 delegates debate new commitments, the NCEA analysis serves as a quantitative benchmark to guide leaders of what is possible, what is measurable, and what policies can achieve without jeopardizing economic growth.
"Policies that constrain supply without reducing demand will raise prices and shift production elsewhere, rather than reduce global emissions," said Eule.
To read the issue brief, visit: https://energyanalytics.org/kaya-analysis-of-global-carbon-dioxide-emissions/.
About the National Center for Energy Analytics (NCEA):
The National Center for Energy Analytics is a think tank devoted to data-driven analyses of policies, plans, and technologies surrounding the supply and use of energy essential for human flourishing. Through objective analyses of energy policies and their implications, NCEA aims to inform policymakers, industry leaders, and the public on critical energy issues.
